Hot off the press!  We've had a chance to review the Fall 2015 admissions data released earlier today by the University of California and thought it would be helpful to summarize it and our key findings.  

Long story short, overall freshman admission rates are down and its getting tougher for California residents as the University of California focuses on increasing the mix of "full pay" out of state and international students to hedge against budget uncertainty.  If you're an out of state or international student, pay close attention...there appears to be a window of opportunity to take advantage of favorable odds at several UC campuses.

Click on Continue Reading for the details.

Key Findings

• Systemwide, the overall freshman admission rate fell from 60% in 2014 to 58% in 2015.  The decline is due to admitted student growth (2.7%) lagging application growth (6.4%) for the year.  As can be seen from the table above, Berkeley and UCLA remained the most selective of the UC campuses overall, with Santa Barbara and San Diego trading spots at 3 and 4, Davis and Irvine trading spots at 5 and 6, and Santa Cruz, Riverside and Merced unchanged at 7, 8 and 9.

• Emphasis on out of state and international admissions. Given the uncertainty surrounding the University of California budget, there was a decided shift towards admitting more "full pay" out of state and international students in 2015.  As of June 18th, approximately 1,000 fewer California applicants were admitted in 2015 compared to 2014, whereas out of state and international student admissions grew by 3,400.  Together, out of state and international students now comprise 33% of the total admitted pool, compared to 30% in 2014 and 27% in 2013.

• Not all campuses employed this approach. This shift was most pronounced at Davis, Irvine, San Diego, Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz, where each increased their mix of out of state and international students by 5-8 percentage points in 2015.  In contrast, Berkeley and UCLA remained essentially unchanged, while Merced and Riverside continued to focus strongly on admitting California residents.

Highlights by Campus

• Berkeley.  The overall admission rate fell slightly from 18% to 17% due to increased application growth (7%).  The number of admitted students was essentially unchanged, and the mix of out of state and international students remained steady at 35% of total admitted students.

• Davis.  The overall admission rate fell from 41% to 38% due to increased application growth (7%).  Davis admitted 2,000 fewer California residents than in 2014 and focused instead on admitting out of state and international applicants.  The mix of out of state and international students grew from 27% to 35% of total this past year.

• Irvine.  The overall admission rate grew slightly from 38% to 39%, as admitted student growth outpaced application growth (11% vs 8%).  All of the admitted student growth, approximately 2,800 students, came from out of state and international pools.  The mix of of admitted out of state and international students grew from 26% to 34%.

• Los Angeles.  The overall admission rate declined from 19% to 17%, due primarily to a 7% increase in applications.  The mix of out of state and international students remained steady at 32% of total admitted students.

• Merced.  The overall admission rate fell from 67% to 65%, as admitted student growth (11%) was outpaced by strong application growth (16%).  Of the 1,250 additional students admitted in 2015, the overwhelming majority were California residents.  The mix of out of state and international students remained essentially unchanged at 5% of total admitted students.

• Riverside.  The overall admission rate declined from 60% to 58%, as application growth (7%) outpaced admitted student growth (3%).  Like Merced, of the 560 additional students admitted in 2015, the vast majority were California residents. The mix of out of state and international students remained steady at 11%.

• San Diego.  The overall admission rate remained essentially unchanged at 34%, as admitted student growth matched application growth for the year.  Over 80% of the increase in admitted students came from out of state and international applicant pools, bringing the mix up from 33% to 39% of total admitted students in 2015.

• Santa Barbara.  The overall admission rate fell from 36% to 33%, due to a 5% decline in admitted students and a 6% growth in applications.  California resident admissions fell by 1,500 students, and international by 120, whereas out of state students increased by 370.  The total mix of non-residents is now 24%, up from 19% in 2014.

• Santa Cruz.  The overall admission rate fell from 57% to 51% due to strong application growth (11%).  Santa Cruz admitted nearly 1,000 fewer California residents, opting to admit more out of state and international students instead.  All told, out of state and international students now represent 25% of the total admitted pool, up from 20% in 2014.

Implications

• Fewer opportunities exist for California residents.  Although Governor Brown and President Napolitano reached an agreement on funding and tuition predictability earlier this May, no explicit provisions have been made for boosting California resident admissions.  Until UC admission growth is able to keep pace with applciation growth, California residents should continue to expect declining admission rates. 

• Window of opportunity for out of state and international applicants.  The search for more "full pay" applicants to help manage budget uncertainty has created greater opportunities for out of state and international students interested in a UC education.  Many UC campuses are stepping up admissions outside of California, and with six of the nine UC campuses ranked in the top 50 national universities by US News & World Report, the value proposition is strong.

• Admission rate advantages exist at Davis, Irvine and San Diego.  Assuming recent trends persist, there are decided admission advantages for out of state and international students at Davis, Irvine and San Diego.  As can be seen in the table below, out of state admission rates are nearly double in state admission rates at Davis and Irvine.